Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Sediment Fluxes of a Watershed in West Africa: Cas of the Aghien Lagoon, Côte d’Ivoire

The semi-distributed SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tools) model was used in this study to the sediment yield watershed of Aghien lagoon with an area 365 km2, located north district Abidjan (South-East from C?te d’Ivoire). A sensitivity uncertainty analysis, as well calibration model, conducted using Sequential Uncertainty Adjustment Procedure (SUFI-2) which is one programs interfaced SWAT-Cup package (SWAT-Calibration-Uncertainty Programs). Five parameters were found be more sensitive fluxes. These have been modified (calibration) sparingly order improve reproduction observed sediments data. Two measures assess analysis model: P-factor R-factor. R2 Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) coefficients determination quality calibration. obtained 0.58 R-factor 2.28. NS over period June 2014 January 2015 are 0.51 0.86 respectively. values indicate correct consideration uncertainties by satisfactory for solid Then, simulate fluxes at horizons 2040 (2035-2056), 2060 (2057-2078) 2080 (2079-2100) impact climate change on lagoon. results that could increase future under RCP 4.5 8.5 scenarios. With 4.5, would average 14.42%. They 17.95% 8.5.